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While the idea that control of the House of the Representatives will flip to the Republican party is rapidly becoming conventional wisdom (which is not the same as a fait accompli), it's still a bit daring to suggest that the Senate might likewise flip. It's fair to see it as an exotic idea: everyone can agree on +4 to +6 GOP Senate gain, and +7 seems reasonable. Even +8--a gain of eight--is not out of the question; yet getting to +10 GOP and control of the Senate seems radically optimistic. It can be done, but only if everything goes right all at once.
But what happens if the final number is +9 GOP?
It's not even remotely impossible. As it stands at the time that I write this, Real Clear Politics forecasts nine pickups: Arkansas, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin; with no pickups for the Democrats. It could happen. Arkansas, Indiana, and North Dakota have been conceded to the GOP for months now. Pennsylvania is almost as certain, and the Democratic party apparatus there is imploding almost as badly as it is in Ohio. West Virginia and Wisconsin are welcome surprises, but not unexpected in a wave year. Colorado and Illinois are going to be somewhat long slogs, but the Democratic candidates are sufficiently weak so as to make the difference in the aforementioned wave year. Nevada will be a nail-biter, but if Harry Reid hasn't made the sale yet he’s going to have to pray that every disaffected voter in Nevada forgets to be disaffected on Election Day. In other words, I think that we can safely use this as a plausible hypothetical 50/50 breakdown. There are others, but let’s look at this one for the Nevada results.
In that case, Joe Biden suddenly becomes—to the Democrats' chagrin—the most important person in Congress. As my readers no doubt know, Biden as Vice President will be expected to break any and all ties in the Senate. A 50-50 split in the Senate will ensure many opportunities for tie-breaking votes, particularly ones that are politically embarrassing for the White House: for example, under this scenario any sort of bloated, pork-laden budget becomes the personal responsibility of the administration. There'd be no way to make the usual claim that the President had no control over how the budget was put together, given that quite obviously he would have had a rather large degree of control. In fact, the executive branch would have effective control over what legislation is even brought to its attention by the legislative branch—particularly since in the above scenario the Democrats would also have an inexperienced Senate 'Majority' Leader to deal with.
The executive branch does not want this kind of control, given that some very hard, very unpopular decisions are going to have to be made by Congress for the foreseeable future.
I should be clear and note that a 50-50 split is not optimal. Optimal would be Republican control of both branches of Congress, with as high a margin as the GOP can manage. To put in perspective: +19 GOP in the Senate in 2010 would barely satisfy me, and that's only because I'm not really convinced that Menendez in NJ can actually be recalled successfully (please, fight that somewhere else).
And yet, it is still interesting to contemplate the productive (and entertaining) chaos that could result from making Joe Biden the permanent face of the administration over the next two years.
